SOA PAPredictive Analytics
Associateship (ASA)
3.5 hours (plus 15-minute read)·One case study, multi-part written response·≈200 study hoursScore 0/0 · 5 MC
- PA · Q1Multiple choiceValidation & business communication
A model's training RMSE is 120 and test RMSE is 210; a simpler model has training RMSE 150 and test RMSE 160. Which should be recommended and why?
- PA · Q2Multiple choiceValidation & business communication
A binary classifier assigns scores 0.9, 0.8, 0.4 to the three actual positives and 0.7, 0.3, 0.2 to the three actual negatives in a test set. Calculate the AUC using the rank/concordance interpretation.
- PA · Q3Written answerValidation & business communication
Draft the key points of an executive summary explaining to a non-technical Chief Underwriting Officer why you recommend a gradient-boosted tree model over a GLM for a new pricing model, including its limitations.