Quarterly rate & reserve review
Close the books on a real insurer's triangle: roll the reserves forward from the prior evaluation, test actual against expected emergence, re-estimate ultimate loss ratios and produce a credibility-weighted rate indication — then hand the decision to the Decision Studio.
Quarterly rate & reserve review
A period-end reserve roll-forward and rate indication on a real CAS Loss Reserve Database triangle. The database is annual (year-end evaluations); a live quarterly cycle applies the same roll-forward logic at each quarter-end instead.
Prior evaluation compared below: 1996.
Reserves — as of 1997 vs. prior (1996)
| AY | Age | Reported | CL ultimate | BF ultimate | Selected | IBNR | Δ ultimate vs prior | Hindsight ultimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 (CL) | 10 | 75,655 | 75,655 | 75,655 | 75,655 | 0 | 543 | 75,655 |
| 1989 (CL) | 9 | 70,846 | 71,358 | 71,184 | 71,358 | 512 | 135 | 71,001 |
| 1990 (CL) | 8 | 49,994 | 50,793 | 50,541 | 50,793 | 799 | 113 | 50,385 |
| 1991 (CL) | 7 | 41,970 | 42,969 | 42,678 | 42,969 | 999 | 291 | 42,887 |
| 1992 (CL) | 6 | 36,884 | 38,361 | 38,109 | 38,361 | 1,477 | 989 | 37,684 |
| 1993 (CL) | 5 | 20,813 | 22,257 | 23,163 | 22,257 | 1,444 | 2,962 | 27,752 |
| 1994 (CL) | 4 | 14,570 | 16,746 | 18,713 | 16,746 | 2,176 | -133 | 21,102 |
| 1995 (CL) | 3 | 10,439 | 13,658 | 18,589 | 13,658 | 3,219 | -10,480 | 14,678 |
| 1996 (BF) | 2 | 8,768 | 16,214 | 20,526 | 20,526 | 11,758 | -3,044 | 13,544 |
| 1997 (BF) | 1 | 5,258 | 21,676 | 24,396 | 24,396 | 19,138 | 24,396 | 20,734 |
| Total | — | 335,197 | — | — | 376,720 | 41,523 | — | — |
Total unpaid / IBNR
$41,523k
Mack std. error (total)
$7,393k
Mack CV
21.4%
Rate indication
| AY | Ultimate LR | Trend years | Trended LR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | 80.2% | 10.0 | 107.7% |
| 1989 | 77.4% | 9.0 | 100.9% |
| 1990 | 74.6% | 8.0 | 94.5% |
| 1991 | 72.1% | 7.0 | 88.7% |
| 1992 | 61.6% | 6.0 | 73.5% |
| 1993 | 31.4% | 5.0 | 36.4% |
| 1994 | 26.8% | 4.0 | 30.2% |
| 1995 | 20.2% | 3.0 | 22.1% |
| 1996 | 41.0% | 2.0 | 43.5% |
| 1997 | 49.3% | 1.0 | 50.8% |
3-yr weighted trended LR
29.6%
Indicated: -57.6%
5-yr weighted trended LR
49.0%
Indicated: -30.0%
Credibility Z (premium rule)
1.00
Complement: -40.2%
Credibility-weighted indication (3yr)
-57.6%
Assumptions & limitations
- The CAS Loss Reserve Database records annual (year-end) diagonals only; each 'quarterly' evaluation here re-runs the same year-end roll-forward logic, standing in for what a quarterly cycle would repeat four times a year.
- Selected ultimate uses chain-ladder for accident years at least 3 years mature and Bornhuetter–Ferguson (a-priori = prior-evaluation weighted ultimate LR) for younger years.
- Full credibility is assumed at $250,000,000 of premium (a stated proxy for the classical 1,082-claim standard, since Schedule P carries no claim counts).
- The complement of credibility is the prior evaluation's own 3-year indicated change, trended forward one year; it is 0 when no prior evaluation exists.
- Tail development beyond age 120 months is not observed in Schedule P and is assumed to be 1.0.