Quarterly rate & reserve review
Close the books on a real insurer's triangle: roll the reserves forward from the prior evaluation, test actual against expected emergence, re-estimate ultimate loss ratios and produce a credibility-weighted rate indication — then hand the decision to the Decision Studio.
Quarterly rate & reserve review
A period-end reserve roll-forward and rate indication on a real CAS Loss Reserve Database triangle. The database is annual (year-end evaluations); a live quarterly cycle applies the same roll-forward logic at each quarter-end instead.
Prior evaluation compared below: 1996.
Reserves — as of 1997 vs. prior (1996)
| AY | Age | Reported | CL ultimate | BF ultimate | Selected | IBNR | Δ ultimate vs prior | Hindsight ultimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 (CL) | 10 | 26,113 | 26,113 | 26,113 | 26,113 | 0 | 134 | 26,113 |
| 1989 (CL) | 9 | 34,988 | 35,168 | 35,124 | 35,168 | 180 | -113 | 35,341 |
| 1990 (CL) | 8 | 41,015 | 41,604 | 41,426 | 41,604 | 589 | -449 | 42,292 |
| 1991 (CL) | 7 | 50,439 | 52,338 | 51,747 | 52,338 | 1,899 | -211 | 52,971 |
| 1992 (CL) | 6 | 63,051 | 67,843 | 66,317 | 67,843 | 4,792 | -1,233 | 67,213 |
| 1993 (CL) | 5 | 67,202 | 75,840 | 74,278 | 75,840 | 8,638 | -2,018 | 75,610 |
| 1994 (CL) | 4 | 61,579 | 75,539 | 75,646 | 75,539 | 13,960 | -2,107 | 75,470 |
| 1995 (CL) | 3 | 55,908 | 78,715 | 80,711 | 78,715 | 22,807 | -3,337 | 76,870 |
| 1996 (BF) | 2 | 42,087 | 76,878 | 80,060 | 80,060 | 37,973 | -3,637 | 73,705 |
| 1997 (BF) | 1 | 22,408 | 83,119 | 76,350 | 76,350 | 53,942 | 76,350 | 74,731 |
| Total | — | 464,790 | — | — | 609,571 | 144,781 | — | — |
Total unpaid / IBNR
$144,781k
Mack std. error (total)
$6,693k
Mack CV
4.5%
Rate indication
| AY | Ultimate LR | Trend years | Trended LR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | 53.6% | 10.0 | 72.1% |
| 1989 | 63.6% | 9.0 | 82.9% |
| 1990 | 68.5% | 8.0 | 86.8% |
| 1991 | 69.3% | 7.0 | 85.3% |
| 1992 | 70.1% | 6.0 | 83.7% |
| 1993 | 58.3% | 5.0 | 67.6% |
| 1994 | 47.4% | 4.0 | 53.3% |
| 1995 | 43.9% | 3.0 | 48.0% |
| 1996 | 45.6% | 2.0 | 48.3% |
| 1997 | 49.4% | 1.0 | 50.8% |
3-yr weighted trended LR
55.2%
Indicated: -21.1%
5-yr weighted trended LR
63.1%
Indicated: -9.9%
Credibility Z (premium rule)
1.00
Complement: -6.8%
Credibility-weighted indication (3yr)
-21.1%
Assumptions & limitations
- The CAS Loss Reserve Database records annual (year-end) diagonals only; each 'quarterly' evaluation here re-runs the same year-end roll-forward logic, standing in for what a quarterly cycle would repeat four times a year.
- Selected ultimate uses chain-ladder for accident years at least 3 years mature and Bornhuetter–Ferguson (a-priori = prior-evaluation weighted ultimate LR) for younger years.
- Full credibility is assumed at $250,000,000 of premium (a stated proxy for the classical 1,082-claim standard, since Schedule P carries no claim counts).
- The complement of credibility is the prior evaluation's own 3-year indicated change, trended forward one year; it is 0 when no prior evaluation exists.
- Tail development beyond age 120 months is not observed in Schedule P and is assumed to be 1.0.