Quarterly rate & reserve review
Close the books on a real insurer's triangle: roll the reserves forward from the prior evaluation, test actual against expected emergence, re-estimate ultimate loss ratios and produce a credibility-weighted rate indication — then hand the decision to the Decision Studio.
Quarterly rate & reserve review
A period-end reserve roll-forward and rate indication on a real CAS Loss Reserve Database triangle. The database is annual (year-end evaluations); a live quarterly cycle applies the same roll-forward logic at each quarter-end instead.
Prior evaluation compared below: 1996.
Reserves — as of 1997 vs. prior (1996)
| AY | Age | Reported | CL ultimate | BF ultimate | Selected | IBNR | Δ ultimate vs prior | Hindsight ultimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 (CL) | 10 | 886,334 | 886,334 | 886,334 | 886,334 | 0 | 707 | 886,334 |
| 1989 (CL) | 9 | 982,148 | 982,932 | 982,769 | 982,932 | 784 | 1,765 | 982,763 |
| 1990 (CL) | 8 | 1,075,537 | 1,079,102 | 1,078,403 | 1,079,102 | 3,565 | 2,074 | 1,079,195 |
| 1991 (CL) | 7 | 1,138,375 | 1,146,697 | 1,145,551 | 1,146,697 | 8,322 | -1,698 | 1,146,042 |
| 1992 (CL) | 6 | 1,226,650 | 1,246,146 | 1,244,484 | 1,246,146 | 19,496 | -4,530 | 1,244,693 |
| 1993 (CL) | 5 | 1,324,732 | 1,375,073 | 1,371,587 | 1,375,073 | 50,341 | -15,007 | 1,377,723 |
| 1994 (CL) | 4 | 1,320,130 | 1,440,528 | 1,434,743 | 1,440,528 | 120,398 | -35,385 | 1,433,285 |
| 1995 (CL) | 3 | 1,185,300 | 1,430,755 | 1,426,379 | 1,430,755 | 245,455 | -40,148 | 1,435,077 |
| 1996 (BF) | 2 | 966,162 | 1,455,908 | 1,441,794 | 1,441,794 | 475,632 | -60,241 | 1,413,844 |
| 1997 (BF) | 1 | 542,021 | 1,568,804 | 1,474,724 | 1,474,724 | 932,703 | 1,474,724 | 1,394,268 |
| Total | — | 10,647,389 | — | — | 12,504,084 | 1,856,695 | — | — |
Total unpaid / IBNR
$1,856,695k
Mack std. error (total)
$149,116k
Mack CV
7.6%
Rate indication
| AY | Ultimate LR | Trend years | Trended LR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | 80.1% | 10.0 | 107.7% |
| 1989 | 82.2% | 9.0 | 107.3% |
| 1990 | 81.1% | 8.0 | 102.7% |
| 1991 | 75.6% | 7.0 | 92.9% |
| 1992 | 71.2% | 6.0 | 85.1% |
| 1993 | 70.0% | 5.0 | 81.2% |
| 1994 | 68.4% | 4.0 | 77.0% |
| 1995 | 66.3% | 3.0 | 72.5% |
| 1996 | 66.4% | 2.0 | 70.5% |
| 1997 | 67.4% | 1.0 | 69.5% |
3-yr weighted trended LR
76.8%
Indicated: 9.7%
5-yr weighted trended LR
80.9%
Indicated: 15.5%
Credibility Z (premium rule)
1.00
Complement: 14.0%
Credibility-weighted indication (3yr)
9.7%
Assumptions & limitations
- The CAS Loss Reserve Database records annual (year-end) diagonals only; each 'quarterly' evaluation here re-runs the same year-end roll-forward logic, standing in for what a quarterly cycle would repeat four times a year.
- Selected ultimate uses chain-ladder for accident years at least 3 years mature and Bornhuetter–Ferguson (a-priori = prior-evaluation weighted ultimate LR) for younger years.
- Full credibility is assumed at $250,000,000 of premium (a stated proxy for the classical 1,082-claim standard, since Schedule P carries no claim counts).
- The complement of credibility is the prior evaluation's own 3-year indicated change, trended forward one year; it is 0 when no prior evaluation exists.
- Tail development beyond age 120 months is not observed in Schedule P and is assumed to be 1.0.