Quarterly rate & reserve review
Close the books on a real insurer's triangle: roll the reserves forward from the prior evaluation, test actual against expected emergence, re-estimate ultimate loss ratios and produce a credibility-weighted rate indication — then hand the decision to the Decision Studio.
Quarterly rate & reserve review
A period-end reserve roll-forward and rate indication on a real CAS Loss Reserve Database triangle. The database is annual (year-end evaluations); a live quarterly cycle applies the same roll-forward logic at each quarter-end instead.
Prior evaluation compared below: 1996.
Reserves — as of 1997 vs. prior (1996)
| AY | Age | Reported | CL ultimate | BF ultimate | Selected | IBNR | Δ ultimate vs prior | Hindsight ultimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 (CL) | 10 | 205,921 | 205,921 | 205,921 | 205,921 | 0 | 10 | 205,921 |
| 1989 (CL) | 9 | 227,553 | 227,564 | 227,562 | 227,564 | 11 | -114 | 227,567 |
| 1990 (CL) | 8 | 260,062 | 260,166 | 260,145 | 260,166 | 104 | -401 | 260,647 |
| 1991 (CL) | 7 | 266,822 | 267,241 | 267,190 | 267,241 | 419 | -298 | 267,228 |
| 1992 (CL) | 6 | 288,748 | 289,971 | 289,871 | 289,971 | 1,223 | 757 | 291,031 |
| 1993 (CL) | 5 | 307,179 | 310,575 | 310,322 | 310,575 | 3,396 | -1,389 | 311,353 |
| 1994 (CL) | 4 | 334,928 | 344,294 | 343,254 | 344,294 | 9,366 | -1,748 | 345,797 |
| 1995 (CL) | 3 | 337,595 | 361,649 | 359,294 | 361,649 | 24,054 | 1,622 | 367,921 |
| 1996 (BF) | 2 | 306,832 | 368,275 | 363,191 | 363,191 | 56,359 | 977 | 375,078 |
| 1997 (BF) | 1 | 196,865 | 393,129 | 370,823 | 370,823 | 173,958 | 370,823 | 374,519 |
| Total | — | 2,732,505 | — | — | 3,001,395 | 268,890 | — | — |
Total unpaid / IBNR
$268,890k
Mack std. error (total)
$13,049k
Mack CV
4.4%
Rate indication
| AY | Ultimate LR | Trend years | Trended LR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | 79.7% | 10.0 | 107.1% |
| 1989 | 82.1% | 9.0 | 107.1% |
| 1990 | 82.3% | 8.0 | 104.2% |
| 1991 | 74.4% | 7.0 | 91.5% |
| 1992 | 71.1% | 6.0 | 84.9% |
| 1993 | 70.6% | 5.0 | 81.8% |
| 1994 | 73.5% | 4.0 | 82.7% |
| 1995 | 72.4% | 3.0 | 79.1% |
| 1996 | 70.2% | 2.0 | 74.5% |
| 1997 | 69.5% | 1.0 | 71.6% |
3-yr weighted trended LR
81.1%
Indicated: 15.9%
5-yr weighted trended LR
83.6%
Indicated: 19.4%
Credibility Z (premium rule)
1.00
Complement: 16.0%
Credibility-weighted indication (3yr)
15.9%
Assumptions & limitations
- The CAS Loss Reserve Database records annual (year-end) diagonals only; each 'quarterly' evaluation here re-runs the same year-end roll-forward logic, standing in for what a quarterly cycle would repeat four times a year.
- Selected ultimate uses chain-ladder for accident years at least 3 years mature and Bornhuetter–Ferguson (a-priori = prior-evaluation weighted ultimate LR) for younger years.
- Full credibility is assumed at $250,000,000 of premium (a stated proxy for the classical 1,082-claim standard, since Schedule P carries no claim counts).
- The complement of credibility is the prior evaluation's own 3-year indicated change, trended forward one year; it is 0 when no prior evaluation exists.
- Tail development beyond age 120 months is not observed in Schedule P and is assumed to be 1.0.