Quarterly rate & reserve review
Close the books on a real insurer's triangle: roll the reserves forward from the prior evaluation, test actual against expected emergence, re-estimate ultimate loss ratios and produce a credibility-weighted rate indication — then hand the decision to the Decision Studio.
Quarterly rate & reserve review
A period-end reserve roll-forward and rate indication on a real CAS Loss Reserve Database triangle. The database is annual (year-end evaluations); a live quarterly cycle applies the same roll-forward logic at each quarter-end instead.
Prior evaluation compared below: 1996.
Reserves — as of 1997 vs. prior (1996)
| AY | Age | Reported | CL ultimate | BF ultimate | Selected | IBNR | Δ ultimate vs prior | Hindsight ultimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 (CL) | 10 | 193,499 | 193,499 | 193,499 | 193,499 | 0 | 2,979 | 193,499 |
| 1989 (CL) | 9 | 199,997 | 203,124 | 202,732 | 203,124 | 3,127 | 4,317 | 200,480 |
| 1990 (CL) | 8 | 224,078 | 229,193 | 228,268 | 229,193 | 5,115 | 3,782 | 225,430 |
| 1991 (CL) | 7 | 204,911 | 211,401 | 210,783 | 211,401 | 6,490 | 3,505 | 206,719 |
| 1992 (CL) | 6 | 208,008 | 218,032 | 217,047 | 218,032 | 10,024 | 4,684 | 214,524 |
| 1993 (CL) | 5 | 219,345 | 238,547 | 235,816 | 238,547 | 19,202 | 697 | 233,365 |
| 1994 (CL) | 4 | 212,446 | 246,282 | 242,450 | 246,282 | 33,836 | -1,164 | 244,280 |
| 1995 (CL) | 3 | 190,974 | 252,280 | 246,695 | 252,280 | 61,306 | 6,760 | 240,184 |
| 1996 (BF) | 2 | 143,590 | 243,622 | 239,595 | 239,595 | 96,005 | -2,227 | 237,368 |
| 1997 (BF) | 1 | 75,827 | 247,080 | 237,848 | 237,848 | 162,021 | 237,848 | 230,775 |
| Total | — | 1,872,675 | — | — | 2,269,801 | 397,126 | — | — |
Total unpaid / IBNR
$397,126k
Mack std. error (total)
$18,264k
Mack CV
4.5%
Rate indication
| AY | Ultimate LR | Trend years | Trended LR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | 67.6% | 10.0 | 90.8% |
| 1989 | 65.8% | 9.0 | 85.8% |
| 1990 | 70.2% | 8.0 | 88.9% |
| 1991 | 63.6% | 7.0 | 78.2% |
| 1992 | 63.8% | 6.0 | 76.1% |
| 1993 | 67.0% | 5.0 | 77.7% |
| 1994 | 64.8% | 4.0 | 73.0% |
| 1995 | 63.3% | 3.0 | 69.1% |
| 1996 | 58.9% | 2.0 | 62.5% |
| 1997 | 58.5% | 1.0 | 60.3% |
3-yr weighted trended LR
73.1%
Indicated: 4.5%
5-yr weighted trended LR
74.6%
Indicated: 6.6%
Credibility Z (premium rule)
1.00
Complement: 4.3%
Credibility-weighted indication (3yr)
4.5%
Assumptions & limitations
- The CAS Loss Reserve Database records annual (year-end) diagonals only; each 'quarterly' evaluation here re-runs the same year-end roll-forward logic, standing in for what a quarterly cycle would repeat four times a year.
- Selected ultimate uses chain-ladder for accident years at least 3 years mature and Bornhuetter–Ferguson (a-priori = prior-evaluation weighted ultimate LR) for younger years.
- Full credibility is assumed at $250,000,000 of premium (a stated proxy for the classical 1,082-claim standard, since Schedule P carries no claim counts).
- The complement of credibility is the prior evaluation's own 3-year indicated change, trended forward one year; it is 0 when no prior evaluation exists.
- Tail development beyond age 120 months is not observed in Schedule P and is assumed to be 1.0.