Quarterly rate & reserve review
Close the books on a real insurer's triangle: roll the reserves forward from the prior evaluation, test actual against expected emergence, re-estimate ultimate loss ratios and produce a credibility-weighted rate indication — then hand the decision to the Decision Studio.
Quarterly rate & reserve review
A period-end reserve roll-forward and rate indication on a real CAS Loss Reserve Database triangle. The database is annual (year-end evaluations); a live quarterly cycle applies the same roll-forward logic at each quarter-end instead.
Prior evaluation compared below: 1996.
Reserves — as of 1997 vs. prior (1996)
| AY | Age | Reported | CL ultimate | BF ultimate | Selected | IBNR | Δ ultimate vs prior | Hindsight ultimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 (CL) | 10 | 60,516 | 60,516 | 60,516 | 60,516 | 0 | 204 | 60,516 |
| 1989 (CL) | 9 | 65,511 | 65,733 | 65,690 | 65,733 | 222 | 1,046 | 65,212 |
| 1990 (CL) | 8 | 62,626 | 63,363 | 63,260 | 63,363 | 737 | -10 | 62,896 |
| 1991 (CL) | 7 | 64,518 | 66,121 | 65,965 | 66,121 | 1,603 | -187 | 65,849 |
| 1992 (CL) | 6 | 74,048 | 77,781 | 76,972 | 77,781 | 3,733 | 60 | 77,074 |
| 1993 (CL) | 5 | 53,599 | 57,656 | 57,303 | 57,656 | 4,057 | 1,349 | 57,649 |
| 1994 (CL) | 4 | 54,388 | 62,453 | 62,329 | 62,453 | 8,065 | 549 | 62,554 |
| 1995 (CL) | 3 | 49,835 | 65,105 | 65,803 | 65,105 | 15,270 | 369 | 77,372 |
| 1996 (BF) | 2 | 44,377 | 77,432 | 77,124 | 77,124 | 32,747 | -7,770 | 103,595 |
| 1997 (BF) | 1 | 27,309 | 118,442 | 94,173 | 94,173 | 66,864 | 94,173 | 113,280 |
| Total | — | 556,727 | — | — | 690,024 | 133,297 | — | — |
Total unpaid / IBNR
$133,297k
Mack std. error (total)
$46,707k
Mack CV
29.6%
Rate indication
| AY | Ultimate LR | Trend years | Trended LR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | 66.0% | 10.0 | 88.7% |
| 1989 | 71.5% | 9.0 | 93.3% |
| 1990 | 67.1% | 8.0 | 84.9% |
| 1991 | 64.0% | 7.0 | 78.7% |
| 1992 | 73.7% | 6.0 | 88.0% |
| 1993 | 63.2% | 5.0 | 73.3% |
| 1994 | 58.6% | 4.0 | 66.0% |
| 1995 | 55.2% | 3.0 | 60.3% |
| 1996 | 58.0% | 2.0 | 61.6% |
| 1997 | 62.6% | 1.0 | 64.4% |
3-yr weighted trended LR
66.0%
Indicated: -5.8%
5-yr weighted trended LR
72.9%
Indicated: 4.2%
Credibility Z (premium rule)
1.00
Complement: 4.3%
Credibility-weighted indication (3yr)
-5.8%
Assumptions & limitations
- The CAS Loss Reserve Database records annual (year-end) diagonals only; each 'quarterly' evaluation here re-runs the same year-end roll-forward logic, standing in for what a quarterly cycle would repeat four times a year.
- Selected ultimate uses chain-ladder for accident years at least 3 years mature and Bornhuetter–Ferguson (a-priori = prior-evaluation weighted ultimate LR) for younger years.
- Full credibility is assumed at $250,000,000 of premium (a stated proxy for the classical 1,082-claim standard, since Schedule P carries no claim counts).
- The complement of credibility is the prior evaluation's own 3-year indicated change, trended forward one year; it is 0 when no prior evaluation exists.
- Tail development beyond age 120 months is not observed in Schedule P and is assumed to be 1.0.