Quarterly rate & reserve review
Close the books on a real insurer's triangle: roll the reserves forward from the prior evaluation, test actual against expected emergence, re-estimate ultimate loss ratios and produce a credibility-weighted rate indication — then hand the decision to the Decision Studio.
Quarterly rate & reserve review
A period-end reserve roll-forward and rate indication on a real CAS Loss Reserve Database triangle. The database is annual (year-end evaluations); a live quarterly cycle applies the same roll-forward logic at each quarter-end instead.
Prior evaluation compared below: 1996.
Reserves — as of 1997 vs. prior (1996)
| AY | Age | Reported | CL ultimate | BF ultimate | Selected | IBNR | Δ ultimate vs prior | Hindsight ultimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 (CL) | 10 | 27,445 | 27,445 | 27,445 | 27,445 | 0 | 34 | 27,445 |
| 1989 (CL) | 9 | 27,470 | 27,504 | 27,501 | 27,504 | 34 | 59 | 27,516 |
| 1990 (CL) | 8 | 30,004 | 30,092 | 30,090 | 30,092 | 88 | 386 | 30,073 |
| 1991 (CL) | 7 | 33,727 | 33,643 | 33,634 | 33,643 | -84 | 421 | 33,926 |
| 1992 (CL) | 6 | 39,237 | 39,271 | 39,272 | 39,271 | 34 | 403 | 40,109 |
| 1993 (CL) | 5 | 53,350 | 53,980 | 53,898 | 53,980 | 630 | 16 | 54,697 |
| 1994 (CL) | 4 | 60,726 | 64,354 | 63,624 | 64,354 | 3,628 | -621 | 64,934 |
| 1995 (CL) | 3 | 54,432 | 63,159 | 61,083 | 63,159 | 8,727 | 4,519 | 61,698 |
| 1996 (BF) | 2 | 42,563 | 60,074 | 56,579 | 56,579 | 14,016 | 3,393 | 69,338 |
| 1997 (BF) | 1 | 21,074 | 58,055 | 47,626 | 47,626 | 26,552 | 47,626 | 62,690 |
| Total | — | 390,028 | — | — | 443,653 | 53,625 | — | — |
Total unpaid / IBNR
$53,625k
Mack std. error (total)
$6,787k
Mack CV
10.0%
Rate indication
| AY | Ultimate LR | Trend years | Trended LR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | 42.5% | 10.0 | 57.2% |
| 1989 | 55.6% | 9.0 | 72.5% |
| 1990 | 51.8% | 8.0 | 65.6% |
| 1991 | 45.3% | 7.0 | 55.7% |
| 1992 | 48.5% | 6.0 | 57.9% |
| 1993 | 57.7% | 5.0 | 66.9% |
| 1994 | 62.9% | 4.0 | 70.8% |
| 1995 | 65.9% | 3.0 | 72.0% |
| 1996 | 59.1% | 2.0 | 62.7% |
| 1997 | 57.4% | 1.0 | 59.1% |
3-yr weighted trended LR
69.9%
Indicated: -0.1%
5-yr weighted trended LR
65.4%
Indicated: -6.6%
Credibility Z (premium rule)
1.00
Complement: -9.0%
Credibility-weighted indication (3yr)
-0.1%
Assumptions & limitations
- The CAS Loss Reserve Database records annual (year-end) diagonals only; each 'quarterly' evaluation here re-runs the same year-end roll-forward logic, standing in for what a quarterly cycle would repeat four times a year.
- Selected ultimate uses chain-ladder for accident years at least 3 years mature and Bornhuetter–Ferguson (a-priori = prior-evaluation weighted ultimate LR) for younger years.
- Full credibility is assumed at $250,000,000 of premium (a stated proxy for the classical 1,082-claim standard, since Schedule P carries no claim counts).
- The complement of credibility is the prior evaluation's own 3-year indicated change, trended forward one year; it is 0 when no prior evaluation exists.
- Tail development beyond age 120 months is not observed in Schedule P and is assumed to be 1.0.