Life & annuity cash-flow projection
A transparent, policy-cohort projection engine: Gompertz–Makeham mortality, graded lapses, expense inflation and commissions drive yearly cash flows, then the same flows are measured under IFRS 17 (BEL + RA + CSM, coverage-unit release) and US GAAP LDTI (net premium ratio, LFPB, DAC).
PV premiums
7.47M
PV benefits + expenses
6.34M
BEL at inception
-1.14M
asset (premiums exceed outgo)
Risk adjustment
327k
CSM at inception
809k
unearned profit, released over coverage
LDTI net premium ratio
68.4%
benefits Ă· gross premium
Profit margin (PV)
10.8%
IRR / break-even
n/a
PV break-even year 3
Assumptions & limitations
- Deterministic best-estimate projection: no stochastic scenarios, dynamic lapses or non-guaranteed elements.
- Single flat discount rate for both IFRS 17 locked-in and current rates; LDTI uses the same rate as a proxy for the upper-medium-grade yield.
- Premiums at the start of each year; deaths, benefits and expenses mid-year; lapses at year-end after deaths.
- Risk adjustment is a simple percentage of the present value of outgo; a cost-of-capital or VaR approach can be substituted.
- Enterprise-scale features (seriatim data, reinsurance, participating business, transition) are outside this tool's scope.
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