PA — Predictive Analytics
SOA
Key ratios: RMSE, MAE, AUC, deviance; Gini / lift: sort by prediction, cumulative capture of actuals.
Link/distribution choices: gamma-log for positive skewed severities; Poisson-log with exposure offset for counts; binomial-logit for binary; Tweedie for pure premium.
Traps to remember
Recommending a model without explaining it in business terms.
Ignoring variables that leak the target (e.g., claim payment when predicting claim occurrence).
Comparing models on training rather than test performance.