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ACT 330 · Year 3 · Semester 2 · 3 credits · Actuarial

Long-Term Actuarial Mathematics II & Pensions

Master multi-state Markov transitions, universal life profit testing, and defined-benefit pension valuation for Exam ALTAM.

Season 1 · 8 episodes

The Solvency Horizon

When a century-old mutual insurer discovers a hidden nine-figure deficit across its legacy pension and annuity books, newly appointed supervisory actuary Maya Lin must dismantle and rebuild their valuation models before state regulators force a catastrophic liquidation.

Protagonist · Maya Lin, FSA, a meticulous valuation specialist tasked with auditing Apex Mutual's distressed long-term liability portfolio.
Setting · Apex Mutual's headquarters in Chicago, amid freezing lake-effect storms and late-night regulatory audit rooms.
Stakes · A four-hundred-million-dollar balance sheet shortfall threatens forty thousand retirees with benefit freezes and Apex Mutual with statutory receivership.
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Cold open

At six in the morning, Maya arrives to find Apex's lead long-term disability actuary staring at a terminal showing millions in unexplained statutory reserves. Claims are moving between active, temporary disability, and permanent impairment, but the legacy software uses static mortality tables that treat every disabled life as either permanently lost or instantly dead.

Transcript

At six in the morning, Maya arrives to find Apex's lead long-term disability actuary staring at a terminal showing millions in unexplained statutory reserves. Claims are moving between active, temporary disability, and permanent impairment, but the legacy software uses static mortality tables that treat every disabled life as either permanently lost or instantly dead.

  • Formulate continuous-time Markov multi-state insurance and pension models.
  • Derive Kolmogorov's forward differential equations from the Chapman-Kolmogorov relation.
  • Calculate state occupancy probabilities and transition probabilities using analytical solutions and numerical stepping.
  • Evaluate expected present values for continuous state annuities and transition lump-sum benefits.
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