Bornhuetter–Ferguson / Benktander / Cape Cod
Blend a-priori expected losses with emerged experience via BF, its iterated Benktander form, and the data-driven Cape Cod method, side by side with chain-ladder.
| Origin \ Dev | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
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Premium by origin year & expected loss ratio
Ultimate comparison
| Origin year | CL ultimate | BF ultimate | Benktander ultimate | Cape Cod ultimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AY 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AY 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AY 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AY 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AY 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AY 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AY 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AY 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AY 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AY 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
IBNR comparison
| Origin year | CL IBNR | BF IBNR | Benktander IBNR | Cape Cod IBNR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AY 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AY 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AY 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AY 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AY 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AY 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AY 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AY 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AY 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AY 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
IBNR by method
Assumptions & limitations
- Premium is on-level (rate and mix adjusted) so that a single expected loss ratio is meaningful across origin years.
- The a-priori expected loss ratio is a credible, independent estimate (e.g., pricing plan or industry benchmark) — not derived from the same data being reserved.
- Cape Cod pools all origin years to estimate a single ELR from the data; it will differ from a manually chosen BF a-priori.